ANALYZING THE NEW STUDENT ADMISSION FORECASTS USING SINGLE AND DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING  FORECASTING METHODS AT STABN SRIWIJAYA  COLLEGE TANGERANG BANTEN

Pringgondani Pringgondani; Franky Okto Bernando

Authors

Pringgondani Pringgondani Program Studi Bisnis dan Manajemen Buddha, STABN Sriwijaya Tangerang, Banten
Franky Okto Bernando Program Studi Bisnis dan Manajemen Buddha, STABN Sriwijaya Tangerang, Banten

Keywords:

Forecasting, Single Eksponential Smoothing, Double Ekspoenential Smoothing

Abstract

This study aims to assess the utilization of Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) techniques in predicting the number of new students at STABN Sriwijaya Tangerang. Additionally, the study aims to analyze the forecasted new student admissions for 2024 using the SES and DES methods. Lastly, the study seeks to identify the optimal value of the Constant error (α) for accurate forecasting. The research methodology employed is applied research, utilizing a population of all historical data on new student admissions. The sample for analysis spans from 2013 to 2023 and was chosen using a purposive sampling procedure. The research yielded the following results: (1) SES forecasting is conducted by determining the constants 0.1 and 0.9, followed by DES forecasting using the same constants. The forecasting methods are then evaluated using error metrics such as MAD, MSE, and MAPE. (2) Using the SES method, the forecasted number of new STABN Sriwijaya students for 2024 is 67 for an alpha value of 0.1 and 95 for an alpha value of 0.9. The Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method predicts that there will be 80 new students in 2024 when using an alpha value of 0.1. However, using an alpha value of 0.9, the forecasted number of new students is 76. (3) The DES approach outperforms the SES method in terms of accuracy, yielding a MAPE result of 27%.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

W. M. P. Van der Aalst, Process Mining. In Process Mining Data Science in Action Second Edition, 2nd ed. 2016.

S. Makridakis, S. C. Wheelwright, and V. E. McGee, Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan, 1st ed. Jakarta: Binarupa Aksara, 2003.

R. J. Hyndman and G. Athanasopoulus, Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd ed. Melbourne: Otext, 2018.

M. Syafwansyah Eff and A. Hendrawan, “FORCASTING MODEL EXSPONENSIAL SMOOTHING TIME SERIES RATA RATA MECHANICAL AVAILABILITY UNIT OFF HIGHWAY TRUCK CAT 777D CATERPILLAR,” Juni, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 1–54.

A. Zakki Falani, “IMPLEMENTASI METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING SEBAGAI FORECASTING PERMINTAAN OBAT PADA DINAS KESEHATAN KOTA SURABAYA,” Jurnal Insand Comtech, vol. 2, no. 2, 2017.

N. Kristanti and M. Y. Darsyah, “Perbandingan Peramalan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Double Exsponential Smoothing pada Karakteristik Penduduk Bekerja di Indonesia Tahun 2017 Comparison of Forecasting Exsponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods on the Popular Characteristics of Working People in Indonesia in 2017,” 2018.

J. Heizer and B. Render, Manajemen Operasi. Jakarta: Salemba Empat, 2015.

S. M. Chen and J. R. Hwang, “Temperature prediction using fuzzy time series. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B (Cybernetics),” Cybernetics, pp. 263–275, 2000.

Supriana and Uci, “Peramalan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Kabupaten Labuhan batu Pada Sektor Pertanian Tahun 2011, Universitas Sumatera Utara.,” Jbptunikom, 2010.

W. Handoko, “PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENERIMAAN MAHASISWA BARU DENGAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (STUDI KASUS: AMIK ROYAL KISARAN),” JURTEKSI (Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi), vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 125–132, Jun. 2019, doi: 10.33330/jurteksi.v5i2.356.

M. Latif and R. Herdiansyah, “Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average dan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,” Journal of Information System Research (JOSH), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 137–142, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.47065/josh.v3i2.1232.

D. Hilda Anjasari, E. Listiwikono, F. Indriana Yusuf, and F. Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, “Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Dan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Untuk Peramalan Wisatawan Grand Watu Dodol 12 | TRANSFORMASI-Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika & Matematika,” 2018.

Azwardi, Metode Penelitian : Pendidikan Bahasa dan Sastra Indonesia. Universitas Syiah Kuala, 2018.

Sugiyono, Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: CV Alfabeta, 2017.

M. H. Kurniawan and D. Herwanto, “Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Moving Average pada Peramalan Permintaan Produk Gasket Cap di PT. Nesinak Industries,” Serambi Engineering, vol. VII, no. 1, 2022.