Analysis of the Determinants of Indonesia's Balance of Payments ECM Model Approach 2003-2022

Annisa Justin; Jafar Sidik Salim

Authors

Annisa Justin Universitas Borneo Tarakan
Jafar Sidik Salim Universitas Borneo Tarakan

Keywords:

Balance of Payments, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Export

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the determinants of Indonesia's balance of Indonesia's balance of payments partially and simultaneously in 2003-2022. This study consists of four independent variables (interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and exports) and one dependent variable (Indonesia's balance of payments). The research method used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results showed that the exchange rate has a negative effect in both the long and short term on Indonesia's balance of payments, but the effect is not significant, interest rates have a negative effect in the long term, but the effect is not significant, while in the short term it has a negative and significant effect. Inflation has a negative effect in the long term on Indonesia's balance of payments, but the effect is not significant, while in the short term it has a positive and insignificant effect, exports have a positive effect on Indonesia's balance of payments in both the long and short term, but the effect is not significant.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

A. Adelegan, A. Edward, A. Abraham, and A. Anthony. (2022). The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Nigeria. Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(7), 222–229. https://doi.org/10.36348/sjef.2022.v06i07.001.

Afrizal. (2020). Analisis Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Pendekatan Model ECM. Prosiding Seminar Akademik Tahunan Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 978–602.

Bank Indonesia. (2022). Laporan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Realisasi Triwulan IV 2022.

Bank Indonesia. (2022). Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia.

Boediono. (2014). Ekonomi Moneter (3rd ed.). BPFE Universitas Gajah Mada.

Ghilous, A., & Ziat, A. (2023). Balance of Payments as a Monetary Phenomenon: An ARDL Bounds Test Method for Algeria. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 23(1), 64–86. https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2023-0004.

Jadhav, B. R. (2020). Description of India’s Balance of Payment Position.

Khan, U. U., Noor, A. A., & Ali, M. (2018). An Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Balance of Payments in Pakistan. International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics, 5(7), 535–552. www.ijmae.com.

Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2014). International Economics Theory and Policy (10th ed.). Pearson Education.

Oktafiani, I. (2019). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Neraca Pembayaran (Balance Of Payment) Indonesia (Studi Empiris Tahun 1992-2017).http://eprints.ums.ac.id/id/eprint/76250%0Ahttp://eprints.ums.ac.id/76250/14/NASKAH ISTANTI r.pdf.

Rangkuty, D. M., Novalina, A., & Fauzi, A. M. (2020). Efek Simultanitas Variabel Moneter Terhadap Neraca Pembayaran Di Lima Negara. Jurnal SEKURITAS (Saham, Ekonomi, Keuangan Dan Investasi), 3(3), 208. https://doi.org/10.32493/skt.v3i3.5007

alamah, R. A., & Wahyuni, K. T. (2021). Analisis Simultan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Tahun 2009-2020. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2021(1), 507–516. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.953.

Soelistyo, A. (2022). Macro-Econometric Model: Keynesian-Monetarist Synthesis of the International Balance of Payments (The Indonesian Case). Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura, 25(1), 61. https://doi.org/10.14414/jebav.v25i1.2606.

Sujianto, A. E. (2020). Macroeconomic factors and balance of payment: Evidence from Indonesia. Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, 19(1), 266–272. https://doi.org/10.7232/iems.2020.19.1.266.

Sultani, A. H., & Faisal, U. (2022). Determinants of Balance of Payment: A Comparative Review of Developing and Least Developed Countries. IJRAR-International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews (IJRAR), 9(2), 18–36.