Analysis of the Increase in the Imposition of 11% Value Added Tax Rates on the Price of Packaging Cooking Oil and General Inflation and Food Price Inflation

Vissia Dewi Haptari; Sri Murwani; Nur Indah Lestari; Ari Mulianta Ginting; Dahiri Dahiri

Authors

Vissia Dewi Haptari Program Studi III Pajak, Program Studi Manajemen Keuangan Negara, PKN STAN, Tangerang Selatan, 15222, Indonesia
Sri Murwani Program Studi III Pajak, Program Studi Manajemen Keuangan Negara, PKN STAN, Tangerang Selatan, 15222, Indonesia
Nur Indah Lestari Program Studi III Pajak, Program Studi Manajemen Keuangan Negara, PKN STAN, Tangerang Selatan, 15222, Indonesia
Ari Mulianta Ginting Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Pelaksanaan APBN, Sekretariat DPR, Jakarta, 10270, Indonesia
Dahiri Dahiri Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Pelaksanaan APBN, Sekretariat DPR, Jakarta, 10270, Indonesia

Keywords:

Value Added Tax Rates, Cooking Oil Prices, Inflation, Food Inflation

Abstract

This study is significant as the tax policy, namely an 11% increase in VAT rates, may impact the economy by elevating cooking oil prices and contributing to overall inflation and food inflation. This study aims to examine the rise in the application of an 11% VAT on bottled cooking oil and other food products. The research model employs a quantitative research methodology. The research employs secondary data sourced from the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) conducted by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), badanpangan.go.id, and Bank Indonesia. The data spans from March 2021 to July 2024 and encompasses a panel of 34 provinces. The implementation of an 11% VAT rate substantially elevates the price of cooking oil. The average price of cooking oil prior to the 11% VAT was IDR 15,950 per liter, however the price subsequent to the 11% VAT rose by 15.05%, resulting in an average of IDR 18,350 per liter. Simultaneously, oil prices exert a favorable and strong influence on the escalation of general price inflation and food price inflation, quantified at 0.0002.

References

M. H. Mgammal, E. M. Al-Matari, and T. F. Alruwaili, “Value-added-tax rate increases: A comparative study using difference-in-difference with an ARIMA modeling approach,” Humanit. Soc. Sci. Commun., vol. 10, no. 1, 2023, doi: 10.1057/s41599-023-01608-y.

S. Acosta-Ormaechea and A. Morozumi, The value-added tax and growth: design matters, vol. 28, no. 5. Springer US, 2021.

A. Andrejovska and M. Helcmanovska, “The impacts of changes in the value added tax rate on the economy in EU countries,” Montenegrin J. Econ., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 59–69, 2021, doi: 10.14254/1800-5845/2021.17-3.5.

D. Lee, D. Kim, and T. E. Borcherding, “Tax structure and government spending: Does the value-added tax increase the size of government?,” Natl. Tax J., vol. 66, no. 3, pp. 541–569, Sep. 2013, doi: 10.17310/ntj.2013.3.02.

N. Azaria and Z. Robinson, “The revenue raising capabilities of a VAT system in developing countries,” South African J. Econ. Manag. Sci., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 63–76, Jan. 2015, doi: 10.4102/sajems.v8i1.1284.

M. Wildan, “Soal Rencana Kenaikan Tarif PPN di Indonesia, Ini Kata World Bank,” DDTCNews, 2024. .

K. Jaworski and J. Olipra, “Cutting VAT rate on food products in a high-inflation environment. Does it work out?,” Food Policy, vol. 131, no. July 2024, p. 102816, 2025, doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102816.

S. A. Putra, “Analisa Peramalan Penjualan dan Promosi Penjualan terhadap Peningkatan Volume Penjualan pada PT. Cakra Anugerah Arta Alumindo Medan,” J. Ilm. “Jumansi Stindo,” vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 1–19, 2019.

T. Healthon, T. Ekowati, and S. Santoso, “Analisis Keseimbangan Permintaan dan Penawaran Minyak Goreng Premium di Kota Semarang,” Paspalum J. Ilm. Pertan., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 42–55, 2024.

A. H. Saragih, “Pengaruh Penerimaan Pajak terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia,” J. Sikap, vol. 3, no. 1, 2018.

M. Todaro, Pembangunan Ekonomi Dunia Ketiga. Jakarta: Erlangga, 2011.

S. Beer, M. Griffiths, and A. Klemm, Tax distortions from inflation: What are they? How to deal with them?, vol. 47, no. 3. 2023.

N. A. Chik, E. F. Alias, S. A. M. Ali, and N. Sulaiman, “The Implications of Palm Cooking Oil Price Increases in Malaysia,” Pertanika J. Soc. Sci. Humanit., vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 1491–1508, 2023, doi: 10.47836/pjssh.31.4.08.

N. Kharisma and I. Furqon, “Analisis Dampak Kenaikan Tarif Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) terhadap Masyarakat dan Inflasi di Indonesia,” J. Sahmiyya, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 295–303, 2023.

L. R. Dewi, “Dampak Kenaikan Harga Minyak Goreng Bagi Pedagang Kecil,” Jounal Econ. Soc. Sci., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 67–75, 2022.

N. Sambur, J. Sondakh, and H. Sabijono, “Analisis Pengaruh Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) dan Pajak Penjualan atas Barang Mewah (PPnBM) Terhadap Daya Beli Konsumen Kendaraan Bermotor,” Berk. Ilm. Efisiensi, vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 132–143, 2015.

A. M. Kalinin, “Increasing the VAT Rate in Russia from the Position of the Laffer Curve,” Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev., vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 353–358, 2022, doi: 10.1134/S1075700722030042.

G. Semenova, “Impact of vat raise on Russian economy,” E3S Web Conf., vol. 210, pp. 1–7, 2020, doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202021013028.

M. I. Al-Otaibi, N. M. Nor, Y. Yusri, and N. Guzaiz, “The impact of new VAT enforcement on financial performance: Evidence from Saudi Arabia non-financial listed companies using the event study and ARMA model,” Heliyon, vol. 10, no. 20, p. e39137, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39137.

M. Ali, T. Hariyati, M. Pratiwi, and S. Afifah, “Metodologi Penelitian Kuantitatif dan Penerapannya dalam Penelitian,” Educ. J., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 1–6, 2022.

Central Statistics Agency, “Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional,” 2021. www.sirusa.bps.go.id/ (accessed Jun. 01, 2025).

S. Aulele, A. Hiariey, Y. Lesnussa, and M. Matdoan, “Analisis Indeks Kepuasan Mahasiswa Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Unpatti Terhadap Operator simPATI Menggunakan Structural Equation Modeling,” Sainmatika J. Ilm. Mat. dan Ilmu Pengetah. Alam, vol. 15, p. 1, Jun. 2018, doi: 10.31851/sainmatika.v15i1.1294.

C. M. Dahl, N. van ’t Hoff, G. Mellace, and S. Smed, “Nudging Nutrition: Lessons from the Danish ‘Fat Tax,’” 2023.

M. Firgo, “Price effects and pass-through of a VAT increase on restaurants in Germany: causal evidence for the first months and a mega sports event,” 2023.

M. H. Hidayat, J. Afifah, F. Firdaus, W. N. Sari, A. I. Hairunnisah, and A. H. Purwaningrum, “Analisis Penjualan, Laba Bruto Dan Gross Profit Margin Setelah Kenaikan Tarif Pajak Pertambahan Nilai Pada Idustri Makanan Dan Minuman,” J. Dimens., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 529–542, 2023, doi: 10.33373/dms.v12i2.5027.

Y. D. K. Rafika P. A., Sasmito W. N., “Pengaruh kenaikan PPN 11%, kenaikan harga sembako dan pendapatan terhadap perilaku konsumtif masyarakat Kota Madiun,” vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 26–44, 2025.

M. I. S. Pratikto and L. Rachmawati, “Pengaruh harga komoditas pangan terhadap inflasi di Kota Parepare,” vol. 4, no. 18, pp. 115–127, 2024.

A. Nugroho and P. G. Salsabila, “Analisis Fenomena Harga Minyak Goreng di Indonesia dan Dampaknya terhadap Sektor Penyediaan Makan Minum,” Semin. Nas. Off. Stat., vol. 2022, no. 1, pp. 101–112, 2022, doi: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1.1209.

S. Rahmanta, Ayu, Fadhilah, “Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas Pangan Terhadap Inflasi di Provinsi Sumatera Utara,” El-Mal J. Kaji. Ekon. Bisnis Islam, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 238–249, 2022, doi: 10.47467/elmal.v4i1.1373.

E. Hena and E. E. Silalahi, “Pengaruh Harga Emas dan Minyak Goreng Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia,” J. Inf. Syst. Applied, Manag. Account. Res. Issue Period, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 643–649, 2022, doi: 10.52362/jisamar.v6i3.555.