Application of Linear Regression Method in Predicting Chicken Egg Sales

Amran Sitohang; Neramayana Br Tarigan; Lira Virna; Allya Dwi Cantika

Authors

Amran Sitohang Teknik Informatika, STMIK Pelita Nusantara, Jl. Iskandar Muda No.1, Medan, Indonesia
Neramayana Br Tarigan Teknik Informatika, STMIK Pelita Nusantara, Jl. Iskandar Muda No.1, Medan, Indonesia
Lira Virna Teknik Informatika, STMIK Pelita Nusantara, Jl. Iskandar Muda No.1, Medan, Indonesia
Allya Dwi Cantika Teknik Informatika, STMIK Pelita Nusantara, Jl. Iskandar Muda No.1, Medan, Indonesia

Keywords:

Sales Prediction, Simple Linear Regression, Chicken Eggs, Downward trend, Historical Data.

Abstract

This study aims to predict chicken egg sales using a simple linear regression method based on historical sales data for 12 months, from April 2024 to March 2025. This study uses a quantitative approach with a longitudinal study design. The total sampling technique is used because all monthly sales data is analyzed without exception. Data was collected through sales report documentation from a single egg distributor business unit that operated consistently during the study period. Data analysis was carried out through a preprocessing process, calculation of variable values X (month), Y (sales), and calculation of XY and XX to obtain regression coefficients. The results of the calculation show that the linear regression equation obtained is Y=150.1515233− 6.24126X. This shows that there is an average decrease in sales of 6.24 egg boards every month. Furthermore, this regression model is used to predict chicken egg sales in the period April 2025 to March 2026. The predicted results show a continued downward trend, with sales projected to decline drastically to near zero by March 2026. The conclusion of this study is that there is a downward trend in chicken egg sales during the two years of observation. These results provide an early warning for business actors to evaluate business strategies and take anticipatory steps. This research also opens up opportunities for further study of external factors that may affect sales.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Arya Della, N. L. W., Diaz, R. A. N., & Novianti, K. D. P. (2021). Penerapan Metode Regresi Linier untuk Memprediksi Permohonan ITAS. Jurnal Eksplora Informatika, 10(2), 92–100. https://doi.org/10.30864/eksplora.v10i2.380

Dewi, I. K., Lestari, V. A., Sihombing, J. R. H., Uyun, F. F., Awaliyyah, N. F. N., Saputra, N. I., & Setiyani, L. (2024). STRATEGI MANAGEMENT RANTAI PASOK TELUR DI TOKO SMART KARAWANG MENGGUNAKAN COLLABORATIVE PLANNING FORECASTING AND REPLENISHMENT. Jurnal Informatika Teknologi Dan Sains (Jinteks), 6(2), 279–284.

Djazuli, R. A., & Hidayat, S. I. (2024). Manajemen Agribisnis Modern. In UMG Press. UMG Press.

Harahap, A. N., Sugianto, S., & Atika, A. (2024). Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Pengendalian Harga Pangan Terhadap Daya Beli Masyarakat (Studi Kasus Pasar Tradisional Di Kabupaten Labuhan Batu Selatan). JPEK (Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi Dan Kewirausahaan), 8(3), 956–968.

Lusiana, F. O., Fatma, I., & Windarto, A. P. (2021). Estimasi Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier Berganda Pada BPS Simalungun. Journal of Informatics Management and Information Technology, 1(2), 79–84.

Nugraha, B. (2022). Pengembangan uji statistik: Implementasi metode regresi linier berganda dengan pertimbangan uji asumsi klasik. Pradina Pustaka.

Nuraeni, N., Saraswati, Y., Wahyuni, H., Rohendi, A., Sukajie, B., & Handayani, N. (2022). Meningkatkan Potensi Pengembangan Usaha Peternak Ayam Petelor di Kp. Cilintung Jelekong.

Tanjung, N. T., & Mardani, D. A. (2024). ANALISIS PERMINTAAN SEMBAKO DI BULAN SUCI RAMADHAN:(Studi Kasus di Pasar Baru Cikatomas 2022-2024). La Zhulma| Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam, 5(1), 237–248.

Widyastuti, R. W. (2023). Sistem Pendukung Keputusan untuk Menentukan Harga Bahan Pokok Menggunakan Regresi Linier. Jurnal Informatika Polinema, 10(1).