Analysis of Product Demand Prediction Using Decision Tree on Sales Data of Ceria Toys Store

Anzas Ibezato Zalukhu; Muhammad Iqbal

doi:10.58471/jds.v3i01.6458

Authors

Anzas Ibezato Zalukhu University Pembangunan Panca Budi, Medan, Indonesia
Muhammad Iqbal University Pembangunan Panca Budi, Medan, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58471/jds.v3i01.6458

Keywords:

Data Mining, Decision Tree, Demand Prediction, Sales Analysis, Inventory Management

Abstract

Ceria Toys faces challenges in efficiently managing the inventory of electric bicycles, as product demand is influenced by factors such as market trends, seasons, and changing consumer preferences. To address this challenge, this research employs data mining techniques with the decision tree algorithm to predict product demand and assist in inventory management. The evaluation results of the predictive model show varying performance across product categories. The precision for the "Hot" category is 58.36%, while for the "Less Popular" category, it is 64.18%. The recall for the "Hot" category reaches 83.71%, but the recall for the "Less Popular" category is only 32.82%. Although the model performs better in predicting hot products, there is still room to improve the detection of less popular products. To enhance effectiveness, Ceria Toys can balance the dataset or adjust the model. With this information, the store can better prepare stock for hot products and optimize the management of less popular products. These steps are expected to maximize sales, reduce excess stock, and improve overall customer satisfaction.

References

A. S. Pertiwi and M. A. Al Ihsan, “Studi Komparatif Persaingan Bisnis Retail Modern dan Tradisional Ditinjau dari Keunggulan Bersaing,” Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 771–781, 2023, doi: 10.33087/ekonomis.v7i2.1062.

Syamruddin, “ANALISIS PELUANG DAN TANTANGAN SERTA PROSPEK BISNIS PT CITRA KARSA INTEGRITAS DITINJAU DARI ASPEK BAURAN PEMASARAN”.

Tarisa Aulia Ananda, Nabilla Kusuma Dewi, and Mohamad Zein Saleh, “Fenomena Perubahan Strategi Pemasaran dalam Menghadapi Tantangan di Era Digital,” Jurnal Publikasi Ilmu Manajemen, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 98–107, Oct. 2023, doi: 10.55606/jupiman.v2i4.2738.

S. Angriva, A. Kisroh, S. Program, S. Agribisnis, K. Kunci, and : Madu, “PERSEPSI DAN PREFERENSI KONSUMEN TERHADAP PRODUK MADU PT KEMBANG JOYO,” AGRISCIENCE, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 186–199, Sep. 2020, doi: 10.21107/AGRISCIENCE.V1I1.7850.

N. Q. Rahmawati, “IMPLEMENTASI DATA MINING TERHADAP DATA MINAT MAHASISWA MENGGUNAKAN METODE APRIORI,” Jurnal Teknologi Kimia Unimal, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 215–228, Nov. 2024, doi: 10.29103/JTKU.V13I2.19563.

H. Widyatmoko, A. S. Honggowibowo, and N. D. Retnowati, “IMPLEMENTASI DATA MINING UNTUK MERAMALKAN PENJUALAN DI MINIMARKET IDOLA JL PATI-TAMBAKROMO KM 2 DESA KARANGMULYO RT 08 RW 1 DENGAN METODE TIME SERIES,” Compiler, vol. 1, no. 2, Nov. 2012, doi: 10.28989/COMPILER.V1I2.15.

Saefudin and D. Fernando, “Application of Book Recommendation Data Mining Using the Apriori Algorithm,” JSiI (Jurnal Sistem Informasi), vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 50–56, 2020.

T. D. Saribu, M. S. Wahyuni, and S. F. Rezky, “Data Mining Dalam Menentukan Pola Penjualan Barang Menggunakan Algoritma Apriori,” Jurnal Sistem Informasi Triguna Dharma (JURSI TGD), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 183–190, Mar. 2024, doi: 10.53513/JURSI.V3I2.6145.

P. M. S. Tarigan, J. T. Hardinata, H. Qurniawan, M. Safii, and R. Winanjaya, “Implementasi Data Mining Menggunakan Algoritma Apriori Dalam Menentukan Persediaan Barang,” Jurnal Janitra Informatika dan Sistem Informasi, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 9–19, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.25008/janitra.v2i1.142.

D. Juniar and B. Daniawan, “Information System Optimation for Purchasing, Inventory, and Sales with Apriori Algorithm Implementation,” Jurnal Teknik Informatika dan Sistem Informasi, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 100-115–100 – 115, May 2024, doi: 10.28932/JUTISI.V10I1.7647.

H. D. Anggraeni, R. Saputra, and B. Noranita, “APLIKASI DATA MINING ANALISIS DATA TRANSAKSI PENJUALAN OBAT MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA APRIORI (Studi Kasus di Apotek Setya Sehat Semarang),” Jurnal Masyarakat Informatika, vol. 4, no. 7, pp. 1–8, 2013, doi: 10.14710/jmasif.4.7.1-8.

F. A. K. Wardani and T. Kristiana, “Implementasi Data Mining Penjualan Produk Kosmetik Pada PT. Natural Nusantara Menggunakan Algoritma Apriori,” Paradigma - Jurnal Komputer dan Informatika, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 85–90, 2020, doi: 10.31294/p.v22i1.6520.

B. Charbuty, B. T. Jijo, and A. M. Abdulazeez, “Classification Based on Decision Tree Algorithm for Machine Learning,” Journal of Applied Science and Technology Trends, vol. 2, no. 01, pp. 20–28, Mar. 2021, doi: 10.38094/jastt20165.

B. L. Dang, H. Nguyen-Xuan, and M. Abdel Wahab, “An effective approach for VARANS-VOF modelling interactions of wave and perforated breakwater using gradient boosting decision tree algorithm,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 268, p. 113398, Jan. 2023, doi: 10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2022.113398.

D. Dong, B. Lin, and X. Dong, “Logistics financial risk assessment based on decision tree algorithm model,” Procedia Comput Sci, vol. 243, pp. 1095–1104, Jan. 2024, doi: 10.1016/J.PROCS.2024.09.130.

M. Rizaludin and F. Fikriah, “Prediksi Prediksi Perilaku Pelanggan Pada Produk UMKM Batik Dengan Menggunakan Algoritma Decision Tree,” Teknomatika, vol. 13, no. 02, pp. 8–16, Nov. 2023, doi: 10.61423/TEKNOMATIKA.V13I02.622.

D. Intan Suranda, A. Nugroho, T. Informatika, F. Teknologi Informasi, and U. Kristen Satya Wacana, “KLASIFIKASI DATA PENJUALAN UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI TINGKAT PENJUALAN PRODUK MENGGUNAKAN METODE DECISION TREE,” Jurnal Tekinkom (Teknik Informasi dan Komputer), vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 370–376, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.37600/TEKINKOM.V7I1.1269.

S. A. Pratiwi, A. Fauzi, S. Arum, P. Lestari, and Y. Cahyana, “Prediksi Persediaan Obat Pada Apotek Menggunakan Algoritma Decision Tree,” KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika dan Komputer, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 2381–2388, Feb. 2024, doi: 10.30865/KLIK.V4I4.1681.

L. Santoso and J. Amanullah, “PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI AKADEMIK BERBASIS WEBSITE MENGGUNAKAN METODE RAPID APPLICATION DEVELOPMENT (RAD),” vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 250–259, 2022, [Online]. Available: http://journal.stekom.ac.id/index.php/elkompage250

D. Elisa Sinaga et al., “Analisis Data Mining Algoritma Decision Tree Pada Prediksi Persediaan Obat (Studi Kasus : Apotek Franch Farma),” KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika dan Komputer, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 123–131, Feb. 2022, doi: 10.30865/KLIK.V2I4.328.